HK>LDN Unstable predicted times
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-01-19 | 01:48:14

The predicted times for the start of the HK>Ldn seem to have some impossibly good times in the history, then they disappear in the next forecast. The jump can be up to 80 hours! Is that some strange artifact in the optimizer, or are there really these miracle routes where you can patch together two favourable systems and then it disappears on the next forecast?

Seems it's all about getting through the Java Sea, right?

commenticon 10 Comments
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-01-19 | 10:45:18
Yep. In certain conditions the router can't pass Java Sea and the displayed time is actually just to Jakarta.

The other glitch is to pass East of Java and add 100 hours to the time.
Post by iconPost by Yvon Fabre | 2020-01-20 | 06:29:31
Hello how to use the predictive time. What does the upper horizontal line ?
Post by iconPost by toxcct | 2020-01-20 | 07:35:22
The top most line of the array represents the previous predictions.
You can focus on the left column only.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-01 | 16:13:01
I wish VR would allow public visibility to standings without requiring the user to access a race. Particularly for record attempts like this. I know sometimes for record attempts, people publish public google doc spreadsheets with known times at various places... Is there such a document for this event? Does anyone have an idea of what the fastest times to various gates have been so far?

More importantly... Anyone wanting to finish would probably need to start within the next two weeks or so... Are any boats finished, or racing, that boats starting in the next two weeks are unlikely to have a chance to beat? I don't think I'm going to do this event... But I might consider it if I can be confident that it's still possible to do well.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-02-01 | 17:37:44
Unless you write it down, there's not even a way to know your own split times, except for the last gate you passed. I track a variety of top VSR ranked people to benchmark against. The fastest to clear the Straits of Sunda that I can see was the group that got 100 miles clear in 4 days yesterday. However, their ranking to the gate in the South China Sea is over 250. So, that indicates there's a group out there I can't see. The first starters are just about the round the Cape in 15 days. That group was exactly at the exit of Sunda in 4 days.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-01 | 18:42:02
Thanks. I just realized the event has only been open for two weeks, so no one can have gotten much past the Cape, let alone finished. Tricky thing with longer record attempts like this and Spindrift is that the deciding factor can be way beyond predictable... If you get the right conditions going up the Atlantic, losing a couple days early can be irrelevant. It doesn't look like boats currently near the Cape will have a particularly fast run to London, so I guess late starters still have a good chance to win.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-01 | 20:25:13
It's quite unpredictable indeed.

1) Java sea is a big factor. You can lose/gain a day or two there, and it's not exactly on the forecast, even on the 3 days.

2) You are running against the weather, and even small differences multiply. With Jules Verne it does not make much difference as long as you don't miss the low pressure system.

3) As pointed by YourMom, The Atlantic can be deciding, but even if the South Atlantic forecast was reliable, the time to the Cape is unpredictable.

Me, I started a bit late with bad control times, then restarted with the best possible forecast, but the St Helena does not look favorable for this run either.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-02-02 | 17:42:16
Seems on HK>Ldn it's all about avoiding the holes. Those low pressure systems we are trying to ride on the JV can seriously mess with the trades in the Indian ocean.

I was a day two starter. At the exit of the Sunda Strait I had gained a few hours on the day one starters. That time would still stand up within a hour or two of the best. However, after parking up a couple of times, it now looks like I'm going to be two days off the pace at the Cape. Catching a ripping ride for a day, doesn't make up for 2 days spent in the hole. Most of the guys following a day behind me appear to have abandoned and restarted.

I hope Zezo you are right about the Atlantic being decisive, cause right now I feel like Robert Kubica, out here just to set a time that no one cares about.
Post by iconPost by tyghfg | 2020-02-03 | 15:27:09
so you'll be on national news here in Poland and that's always something xD
Jokes aside top player from here, Nieregatowiec_zegluj started as soon as possible, passed cape town as 39th and is approaching to tropic of capricorn, his eta to london for now is about 31 days. I started(tyghfg and siara) little earlier than BigBird and right now iam 20min behind him with no chance of a great passage cos iam only on foils, ls and ph.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-02-03 | 17:39:04
I just wanted to see if Poland was paying attention ;)
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