Future Cast Fuzzyness...
Post by iconPost by DonJuan21 | 2020-02-28 | 04:15:13

The farther out we try to see, the less resolusion and less certain we are of the outcome.

Is there a way to build that uncertinty into the routing? (fuzziness)

As I understand it, the minimization routine treats all futures equally.

And thus, there are big discontinuities between routes of 5d vs. 6d lets say. That's not realistic.

It should be continuous.

Maybe some time dependent exponential decay in the value of future.

Know what I mean?


commenticon 6 Comments
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-28 | 16:15:33
That's the mental part. ;-)
Post by iconPost by DonJuan21 | 2020-02-28 | 23:28:35
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-28 | 17:03:57
A time-limited routing is not very useful most of the time. Better add bias to the destination point according to preferred route, or move it around as the forecast changes.

There are few ways to deal with that in real-world routers:

- Use different weather models
- Add variation to the forecast and explore the route stability
- Create and ensemble of past and current routings

But that's a bit too much for an online tool. And access to "other models" cost about $100000/year

Post by iconPost by DancingBrave | 2020-02-28 | 21:20:14
"access to "other models" cost about $100000/year"
I wonder if there are many game players using such tools.

I know of a certain Italian boat, one of the best in Italy, that often sails a short term course that runs against my logic/ zezo routing especially taking routes that involve sailing much freer upwind.

Plus I can think of a Spanish boat that often pops up top 10 using a completely different medium term route to the other 'rockstars' ( rarely ends up on the podium though).
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-28 | 21:30:37
That's the price to a company, which in turn resells it to end customers. So as an end customer you can have a $20/month subscription plan that includes ECMWF data. Or that might be included with your $10k Expedition/Adrena license that you have purchaesed for real-world racing.

And yes, there are players using that kind of tools/data.
Post by iconPost by DonJuan21 | 2020-02-29 | 21:10:29
Expedition looks really cool though!

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